How Often is the Groundhog Actually Right?
Today is the day we always talk about what Phil, the Groundhog from Pennsylvania, is going to do. Does he see his shadow? Are we going to have six more weeks of winter?
This year, Phil predicted that we were going to have six more weeks of winter. (A shock, I know).
It got me thinking. How often is this ground hog actually right? We look at him every year and completely forget about his prediction! We should be holding him accountable! Okay, maybe we shouldn't but I had to know how accurate he is, so I did some digging.
According to an article on Live Science, the Groundhog's Club records indicate that Punxsutawney Phil has predicted more winter 109 times, and he has predicted an early spring 17 times. More data, from the Stormfax Almanac, shows that he has been right 39 percent of the time!
So about 40 percent of the time, the Groundhog is actually right. I would have thought that it would have been closer to 50 percent, but nonetheless, 40 percent of the time is pretty good for a Groundhog.